Bitcoin Cash Solo Mining Chance Calculator

Disclaimer: This Bitcoin solo mining calculator provides probabilistic estimates, not guarantees, based on constantly changing data, and we are not responsible for any actions you take based on the data provided.


How do you calculate the chance to solo mine a Bitcoin Cash block?

Our Bitcoin Cash solo mining calculator uses two key formulas to estimate the probability of finding a block. One is a simple calculation for a single block, and the other is a complex formula to estimate the probability over a longer period. Below is the simple calculation for finding a single Bitcoin Cash block.

P(block) =
Your Hashrate Network Hashrate

The formula above is your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. The answer is your share of the total mining power for the Bitcoin Cash network. For example, if your hashrate was 100 PH/s and the network hashrate was 500 PH/s, you would account for 20% of the total mining power. This means your chance of mining a single block is 20%. 🤓

The formula below is where things get complicated because it avoids a common misconception known as the "Gambler's Fallacy." You cannot multiply your single-block chance by the number of blocks in a time period. You need to calculate the probability of failing to find a block, over and over again, and then subtract that from 100%. 😲

P(time period) = 1 - (1 - P(block))n

The formula above will give you the true probability of finding at least one block in that timeframe. This is why your chance of finding a block in a lifetime (8 decades) can be 99.991%, even if your chance in one decade is only 68%. 😫 You are calculating the tiny chance of failing for eight decades in a row and subtracting it from 100%.



What is Bitcoin Cash solo mining?

To better understand Bitcoin Cash solo mining, you need to understand the two different types of crypto mining.

Bitcoin Cash Pool Mining 👪: This is when a group of miners collectively combines their mining equipment (hashrate) to find a Bitcoin Cash block. This type of mining can greatly increase the chances of finding a block. However, the reward is split proportionally among all the miners in the pool. For example, if you contributed 4% of the pool's total hashrate, you would receive 4% of the block reward.

Bitcoin Cash Solo Mining 🕵: This is when a single miner uses their own mining equipment to find a Bitcoin Cash block. While this type of mining results in a much larger payout (since you keep the entire reward! 🤴), the odds of succeeding are improbable unless you spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on mining equipment.



What is the current Bitcoin Cash network hashrate?

The current Bitcoin Cash network hashrate is 4.45 EH/s. A reasonable estimate is that there are between 35,000 and 285,000 active mining devices on the network. However, the decentralized and pseudonymous nature of the Bitcoin Cash network makes it impossible to know the true number. 👥 Collectively, these mining devices use more electricity to mine Bitcoin Cash than some cities need for their entire population. 🔌



What is the current Bitcoin Cash network difficulty?

The current Bitcoin network difficulty is 637.76 G. The network diffficulty is adjusted every new block using a difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA), to keep the average time for creating a new block at around 10 minutes. If Bitcoin Cash blocks are being mined too fast, the network difficulty increases. 📈 Conversely, if they're being mined too slow, the difficulty decreases. 📉


What is the current Bitcoin Cash mining reward?

The current Bitcoin Cash mining reward is 3.125 BCH plus transaction fees. With the Bitcoin Cash price at $623.05, this reward is very valuable. To put that in perspective, imagine you just mined block #911570. The reward for that single block was $1,947.83—that is a decent amount of money! 💰 This why crypto mining companies invest money into specialized mining hardware.