Bitcoin Solo Mining Chance Calculator
How do you calculate the chance to solo mine a Bitcoin block?
Our Bitcoin solo mining calculator uses two key formulas to estimate the probability of finding a block. One is a simple calculation for a single block, and the other is a complex formula to estimate the probability over a longer period. Below is the simple calculation for finding a single Bitcoin block.
The formula above is your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. The answer is your share of the total mining power for the Bitcoin network. For example, if your hashrate was 1 EH/s and the network hashrate was 100 EH/s, you would account for 1% of the total mining power. This means your chance of mining a single block is 1%. 🤓
The formula below is where things get complicated because it avoids a common misconception known as the "Gambler's Fallacy." You cannot multiply your single-block chance by the number of blocks in a time period. You need to calculate the probability of failing to find a block, over and over again, and then subtract that from 100%. 😲
The formula above will give you the true probability of finding at least one block in that timeframe. This is why your chance of finding a block in a lifetime (8 decades) can be 99.991%, even if your chance in one decade is only 68%. 😫 You are calculating the tiny chance of failing for eight decades in a row and subtracting it from 100%.
What is Bitcoin solo mining?
To better understand Bitcoin solo mining, you need to understand the two different types of crypto mining.
Bitcoin Pool Mining 👪: This is when a group of miners collectively combines their mining equipment (hashrate) to find a Bitcoin block. This type of mining can greatly increase the chances of finding a block. However, the reward is split proportionally among all the miners in the pool. For example, if you contributed 5% of the pool's total hashrate, you would receive 5% of the block reward.
Bitcoin Solo Mining 🕵: This is when a single miner uses their own mining equipment to find a Bitcoin block. While this type of mining results in a much larger payout (since you keep the entire reward! 🤴), the odds of succeeding are nearly impossible unless you spend millions of dollars on mining equipment.
How do you solo mine Bitcoin?
So, you want to solo mine a Bitcoin block? Luckily, it is not hard to get started. 😁
First, you have to decide how you are going to do it. Are you going to use assisted solo mining with a Bitcoin mining pool, or do you want to be fully decentralized and mine 100% on your own? Let's review these two options.
Assisted Solo Mining (with a Pool): Most miners, especially those just starting out, choose this option. This is where you use an existing Bitcoin mining pool that offers a solo mining service. If you find a Bitcoin block, you get to keep the entire reward, minus the pool's fee (usually 1-4%).
Fully Decentralized Solo Mining: Experienced miners often choose this option. This is where you run your own Bitcoin node and mining software. It requires some technical knowledge, but you can figure it out with a little research. Here is a hint: look into UmbrelOS, which makes it easy to run a Bitcoin node and a public mining pool.
Regardless of which option you choose, you will need ASIC mining equipment; you cannot mine Bitcoin effectively with CPUs or GPUs. 👎 If you are starting out and do not want to spend a lot of money, I recommend looking into open-source solutions like BitAxe (Gamma or NerdAxe++) and Canaan equipment (like the Nano 3 or Avalon Q series).
What is the current Bitcoin network hashrate?
The current Bitcoin network hashrate is 906.39 EH/s, a figure so large it can be difficult to comprehend. A reasonable estimate is that there are between 4.1 and 6.2 million active mining devices on the network. However, the decentralized and pseudonymous nature of the Bitcoin network makes it impossible to know the true number. 👥 Collectively, these mining devices use more electricity to mine Bitcoin than some countries need for their entire population. 🔌
What is the current Bitcoin network difficulty?
The current Bitcoin network difficulty is 129.44 T. The network diffficulty is adjusted every 2,016 blocks, or roughly every two weeks, to keep the average time for creating a new block at around 10 minutes. If Bitcoin blocks are being mined too fast, the network difficulty increases. 📈 Conversely, if they're being mined too slow, the difficulty decreases. 📉
What is the current Bitcoin mining reward?
The current Bitcoin mining reward is 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. With the Bitcoin price at $117,694.00, this reward is extremely valuable. To put that in perspective, imagine you just mined block #910244. The reward for that single block was $369,978.32—that is a lot of money! 💰 Now it's easy to see why crypto mining companies spend millions on specialized hardware.