Ethereum Classic Solo Mining Chance Calculator
How do you calculate the chance to solo mine a Ethereum Classic block?
Our Ethereum Classic solo mining calculator uses two key formulas to estimate the probability of finding a block. One is a simple calculation for a single block, and the other is a complex formula to estimate the probability over a longer period. Below is the simple calculation for finding a single Ethereum Classic block.
The formula above is your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. The answer is your share of the total mining power for the Ethereum Classic network. For example, if your hashrate was 10 TH/s and the network hashrate was 250 TH/s, you would account for 4% of the total mining power. This means your chance of mining a single block is 4%. 🤓
The formula below is where things get complicated because it avoids a common misconception known as the "Gambler's Fallacy." You cannot multiply your single-block chance by the number of blocks in a time period. You need to calculate the probability of failing to find a block, over and over again, and then subtract that from 100%. 😲
The formula above will give you the true probability of finding at least one block in that timeframe. This is why your chance of finding a block in a lifetime (8 decades) can be 99.991%, even if your chance in one decade is only 68%. 😫 You are calculating the tiny chance of failing for eight decades in a row and subtracting it from 100%.
What is Ethereum Classic solo mining?
To better understand Ethereum Classic solo mining, you need to understand the two different types of crypto mining.
Ethereum Classic Pool Mining 👪: This is when a group of miners collectively combines their mining equipment (hashrate) to find a Ethereum Classic block. This type of mining can greatly increase the chances of finding a block. However, the reward is split proportionally among all the miners in the pool. For example, if you contributed 11% of the pool's total hashrate, you would receive 11% of the block reward.
Ethereum Classic Solo Mining 🕵: This is when a single miner uses their own mining equipment to find a Ethereum Classic block. While this type of mining results in a much larger payout (since you keep the entire reward! 🤴), the odds of succeeding are hard unless you spend tens of thousands of dollars on mining equipment.
What is the current Ethereum Classic network hashrate?
The current Ethereum Classic network hashrate is 237.63 TH/s. A reasonable estimate is that there are between 60,000 and 1.2 million active mining devices on the network. However, the decentralized and pseudonymous nature of the Ethereum Classic network makes it impossible to know the true number. 👥 Did you know Ethereum Classic is a hard fork of the original Ethereum blockchain? This happened in 2016 following a controversial hard fork that resulted from a DAO hack. 🔌
What is the current Ethereum Classic network difficulty?
The current Ethereum Classic network difficulty is 3.40 P. The network diffficulty is adjusted every new block using a difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA), to keep the average time for creating a new block at around 13 seconds. If Ethereum Classic blocks are being mined too fast, the network difficulty increases. 📈 Conversely, if they're being mined too slow, the difficulty decreases. 📉
What is the current Ethereum Classic mining reward?
The current Ethereum Classic mining reward is 2.048 ETC plus transaction fees. With the Ethereum Classic price at $22.18, this reward is worth the investment. To put that in perspective, imagine you just mined a Ethereum Classic block. The reward for that single block would be $45.41 plus transaction fees—that is not terrible! 💰 This is why miners use specialized hardware to mine Ethereum Classic.