Monero Solo Mining Chance Calculator
How do you calculate the chance to solo mine a Monero block?
Our Monero solo mining calculator uses two key formulas to estimate the probability of finding a block. One is a simple calculation for a single block, and the other is a complex formula to estimate the probability over a longer period. Below is the simple calculation for finding a single Monero block.
The formula above is your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. The answer is your share of the total mining power for the Monero network. For example, if your hashrate was 1 GH/s and the network hashrate was 100 GH/s, you would account for 1% of the total mining power. This means your chance of mining a single block is 1%. 🤓
The formula below is where things get complicated because it avoids a common misconception known as the "Gambler's Fallacy." You cannot multiply your single-block chance by the number of blocks in a time period. You need to calculate the probability of failing to find a block, over and over again, and then subtract that from 100%. 😲
The formula above will give you the true probability of finding at least one block in that timeframe. This is why your chance of finding a block in a lifetime (8 decades) can be 99.991%, even if your chance in one decade is only 68%. 😫 You are calculating the tiny chance of failing for eight decades in a row and subtracting it from 100%.
What is Monero solo mining?
To better understand Monero solo mining, you need to understand the two different types of crypto mining.
Monero Pool Mining 👪: This is when a group of miners collectively combines their mining equipment (hashrate) to find a Monero block. This type of mining can greatly increase the chances of finding a block. However, the reward is split proportionally among all the miners in the pool. For example, if you contributed 3% of the pool's total hashrate, you would receive 3% of the block reward.
Monero Solo Mining 🕵: This is when a single miner uses their own mining equipment to find a Monero block. While this type of mining results in a much larger payout (since you keep the entire reward! 🤴), the odds of succeeding are low unless you spend tens of thousands of dollars on mining equipment.
What is the current Monero network hashrate?
The current Monero network hashrate is 5.29 GH/s. A reasonable estimate is that there are between 125,000 and 190,000 active mining devices on the network. However, the decentralized and pseudonymous nature of the Monero network makes it impossible to know the true number. 👥 Did you know you cannot mine Monero with ASIC hardware? You have to use CPU(s)! This is why the network hashrate is defined differently from other blockchains. 🔌
What is the current Monero network difficulty?
The current Monero network difficulty is 635.07 G.The network diffficulty is adjusted every new block using a difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA), to keep the average time for creating a new block at around 2 minutes. If new Monero blocks are being mined too fast, the network difficulty will increase. 📈 Conversely, if they're being mined too slow, the difficulty will decrease. 📉
What is the current Monero mining reward?
The current Litecoin mining reward is 0.6 XMR plus transaction fees. With the Monero price at $239.09, this reward is worth the investment. To put that in perspective, imagine you just mined block #3479023. The reward for that single block was $143.84—that is not bad! 💰 This why crypto mining companies mine Monero with specialized hardware.